Nope, not talking about abortion. Talking about Iraq. The "surge" as it is called (sounds nice...surging to victory...nobody ever surges to defeat), is in motion. As much as I dislike Bush, you can't deny that his administration knows how to play things. No need to go to Congress and ask for permission to increase troop size...just do it. Congress has a few choices:
(1) Do nothing.
(2) Vote on a non-binding resolution opposing the increase (or, as we also might describe it, "do nothing").
(3) Cut off funding for the war.
Please note that any alleged additional options are either side shows or unconstitutional. Holding hearings is critical and must be done, and ultimately may lead to something, but it doesn't, in and of itself, do anything. The proposal being floated, to cap troop levels at 130,000 (I think that this is the Clinton proposal), is laughable, since there is nothing in the Constitution that supports Congress doing this, but everything in the Constitution suggests that Congress can't direct management of the war.
Congress will never cut off funding for the war. We have three potential scenarios:
First, we muddle along, in which Congress will never cut off funding (that will draw some responsibility to Congress for this failed war). I think that there is a 90% chance that this happens. Our troops will not lose battles (or at least, many concerted battles...Somalia showed us that given the wrong situations, even the best equiped and trained troops can lose a fight, and that is the only way one can describe the situation in Mogadishu way back in the early 90's), but the insurgents and civil war combatants do not need to win - they simply need to survive and collect. Outlast American bullets, and collect documentation of every atrocity, real or perceived, and use it to increase their ranks and public sympathy.
Second option is things go well and we actually wipe out the insurgency and stop the civil war in which case Bush is vindicated (I'm not saying its going to happen...its just a possibility). I say that there is a 1% chance this happens. First, we are not technically fighting the civil war combatants, so there is no reason to think that we will stop it. Second, Bush is in charge, which is probably the biggest inhibitor to us prevailing in Iraq. While the body count is high now for America, I think its fairly clear that if we take on the civil war combatants, we are in for a world of hurt. If we take a side (say, the Shi'a side), it will only boost the insurgency and support for sunni forces. If we don't take a side, there is no reason to think that the civil war combatants will not put aside grievances to fight against us together - which is a good description of what Moqtada al-Sadr did when we attacked Sunni insurgents a couple of years ago in Fallujah. They hate each other, and they hate us. Each side thinks that they can beat each other, but nobody thinks that they can withstand a fight againt the US alone WHILE simultaneously fighting the other civil war combatant (so, I think that taking on the civil war combatants would exact a high toll on our forces).
Final option isthings go desperately wrong, like someone sets off a nuclear weapon in Iraq, Iran steamrolls across the border, etc. I give this a 9% chance of happening. This is the most interesting scenario, if you ask me. First, anything like this will likely BOOST American support for the war. Worst case scenarios do that sometimes. Setting off a nuclear or other WMD weapon in Iraq would allow war hawks to say "see, I told you so" and make many Americans re-think their opposition...."oh, so THIS is what we are fighting for..." Iran steaming across the border would also create the same kind of attitude in the US...we need to check Iranian influence...see? They just want to interfere and no foreign power should be interfering in Iraq (except, of course, us).
What will happen? I don't know, but I think that we can safely bet that Joe Lieberman will go to his grave supporting this war, no matter how badly it turns out and no matter how wrong he is proven. Go get 'em holy Joe.
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